The loss of patent exclusivity on several key branded products and the lack of novel drugs will result in minimal growth of the allergic conjunctivitis treatment market, from $1.37 billion in 2013 to $1.44 billion by 2018, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.88 per cent, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

The company’s latest report states that marginal expansion, which will occur across six major markets (the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the UK), will be driven by increased disease prevalence and the introduction of three new allergic conjunctivitis therapies, namely AC-170, OTX-DP and Vekacia.

Alvina To, Ph.D., GlobalData’s Analyst covering Neurology and Ophthalmology, says: “These drugs will stimulate market growth towards the end of the forecast period, providing alternative choices to physicians and improving the convenience of drug administration for patients.

“Additionally, the US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) has granted orphan drug designation to Vekacia, making it eligible for tax exemptions, shortening its approval time and extending its patent protection.”
However, the loss of patents on various existing therapies will lead to increased genericization of the market over the forecast period, while physician satisfaction with existing therapies will be another barrier to growth.

To explains: “As the US will have a 79 per cent share of the allergic conjunctivitis treatment space by 2018, the impending US patent expiries of Lotemax, Patanol and Lastacaft, in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively, will have a negative impact on the global market.

“Furthermore, some key opinion leaders interviewed by GlobalData have expressed contentment with the current treatment options, particularly dual-acting products, which are effective first-line therapies.”

The analyst concludes that such attitudes hinder market entry for drugs in development, emphasising that physicians require incentives to switch to new treatments.

Opportunity Analyzer: Allergic Conjunctivitis Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2018.