Multiple major drug patent expiries will cause the global anti-hypertensive market value to decline from $40 billion in 2013 to $37.6 billion by 2020, at a negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.9 per cent says business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company’s latest report states that while the anti-hypertensive market value is first expected to increase to $44.5 billion by 2017, representing a CAGR of 2.6 per cent it will then fall at a negative CAGR of 5.4 per cent through to 2020.

Arti Singh, Analyst for GBI Research, says: “The initial expansion of this market will result from the increased penetration of fixed-dose combination drugs, such as Amturnide, Exforge, Tribenzor, Azor, Tekamlo and Valturna. A rise in the prevalence of hypertension, from a population of 181 million to 190 million, combined with the anticipated launches of azilsartan amlodipine and AHU377 valsartan, will also contribute.”

However, the hypertension market growth will be countered by significant drug patent expirations both prior to and during the forecast period, including those of Cozaar in 2010, Diovan, Avapro and Atacand in 2012, Exforge in 2014, Benicar in 2016 and Tekturna and Tekturna HCT in 2018. A low diagnosis rate, teamed with a rise in generic penetration, will also drive the decline.

Singh continues: “Most of the drugs in the anti-hypertensives pipeline are generics, accounting for 77 per cent of over 544 active molecules in development, while only 20 per cent are novel drug candidates.

“The substantial number of active drug candidates, spread across the various stages of clinical development, demonstrates a strong overall pipeline. However, the novel approach is currently limited to a few targets, most notably nondihydropyridine dual L/T-type calcium channel blockers (ACT-280778), Rho-associated kinase inhibitors (AN-3485) and vitamin D receptor agonists (CARD-024).”

According to GBI Research, an increased uptake in combination therapies for treating hypertension will enable the anti-hypertensive market to survive despite the series of patent expiries. Furthermore, the report states that an expected rise in the prescription of renin inhibitors (Tekturna/Rasilez) over the forecast period will also keep the market growth steady.